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Maheshate vs Gauge Young

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

FINAL: Gauge Young by U-DEC
Maheshate
Maheshate
Age 25 · Elo 1505
WWLLW
272 days since last fight
vs
Gauge Young
Gauge Young
Age 25 · Elo 1503*
L
119 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

MaheshateGauge Young
Claude Claude: Maheshate 31% Claude: Gauge Young 69% 31% 69% GPT GPT: Maheshate 35% GPT: Gauge Young 65% 35% 65% Elo Elo: Maheshate 50% Elo: Gauge Young 50% 50% 50%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

MaheshateGauge Young
Strikes landed / min Maheshate Strikes landed / min: 3.90 3.90 Gauge Young Strikes landed / min: 6.32 6.32 Strikes absorbed / min Maheshate Strikes absorbed / min: 5.76 5.76 Gauge Young Strikes absorbed / min: 5.12 5.12 Striking accuracy Maheshate Striking accuracy: 28% 28% Gauge Young Striking accuracy: 52% 52% Striking defense Maheshate Striking defense: 53% 53% Gauge Young Striking defense: 49% 49% Takedowns / 15 min Maheshate Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Gauge Young Takedowns / 15 min: 0.75 0.75 Takedown defense Maheshate Takedown defense: 45% 45% Gauge Young Takedown defense: 76% 76% Sub attempts / 15 min Maheshate Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Gauge Young Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Gauge Young by Decision, 69.185% confidence

Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.

GPT
Gauge Young by Decision, 65% confidence

Gauge Young enters with a significant striking accuracy advantage (56% vs 28%) and higher output (4.27 SLpM). Both fighters are defensively vulnerable, absorbing over 5 strikes per minute, but Young's accuracy and volume should allow him to outpoint Maheshate in a likely striking battle, given neither attempts takedowns. Maheshate's physical advantages are minor and unlikely to offset the technical disparity in striking.