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Uran Satybaldiev vs Diyar Nurgozhay

Light Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

FINAL: Uran Satybaldiev by SUB Ezekiel Choke
Uran Satybaldiev
Uran Satybaldiev
Elo 1507*
L
140 days since last fight
vs
Diyar Nurgozhay
Diyar Nurgozhay
Age 28 · Elo 1449*
L
161 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Uran SatybaldievDiyar Nurgozhay
Claude Claude: Uran Satybaldiev 25% Claude: Diyar Nurgozhay 75% 25% 75% GPT GPT: Uran Satybaldiev 30% GPT: Diyar Nurgozhay 70% 30% 70% Elo Elo: Uran Satybaldiev 58% Elo: Diyar Nurgozhay 42% 58% 42%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Uran SatybaldievDiyar Nurgozhay
Strikes landed / min Uran Satybaldiev Strikes landed / min: 0.00 0.00 Diyar Nurgozhay Strikes landed / min: 5.19 5.19 Strikes absorbed / min Uran Satybaldiev Strikes absorbed / min: 0.00 0.00 Diyar Nurgozhay Strikes absorbed / min: 2.81 2.81 Striking accuracy Uran Satybaldiev Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Diyar Nurgozhay Striking accuracy: 61% 61% Striking defense Uran Satybaldiev Striking defense: 0% 0% Diyar Nurgozhay Striking defense: 59% 59% Takedowns / 15 min Uran Satybaldiev Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Diyar Nurgozhay Takedowns / 15 min: 1.19 1.19 Takedown defense Uran Satybaldiev Takedown defense: 0% 0% Diyar Nurgozhay Takedown defense: 72% 72% Sub attempts / 15 min Uran Satybaldiev Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Diyar Nurgozhay Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 7% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Diyar Nurgozhay by Decision, 75% confidence

Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.

GPT
Diyar Nurgozhay by Decision, 70% confidence

Diyar Nurgozhay has a substantial statistical edge, with proven UFC-level output (3.52 SLpM at 52% accuracy, 66% striking defense), excellent distance management, and perfect takedown defense. Satybaldiev's complete lack of UFC stats introduces significant uncertainty about his readiness and effectiveness against a defensively sound striker. Unless Satybaldiev reveals a major stylistic advantage or grappling threat, Nurgozhay's activity and efficiency should control the fight.