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Charles Johnson vs Lone'er Kavanagh

Flyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

FINAL: Charles Johnson by KO/TKO Punch
Charles Johnson
Charles Johnson
Age 34 · Elo 1529
LWWWW
174 days since last fight
vs
Lone'er Kavanagh
Lone'er Kavanagh
Age 26 · Elo 1512*
WW
154 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Charles JohnsonLone'er Kavanagh
Claude Claude: Charles Johnson 37% Claude: Lone'er Kavanagh 63% 37% 63% GPT GPT: Charles Johnson 37% GPT: Lone'er Kavanagh 63% 37% 63% Elo Elo: Charles Johnson 52% Elo: Lone'er Kavanagh 48% 52% 48%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Charles JohnsonLone'er Kavanagh
Strikes landed / min Charles Johnson Strikes landed / min: 4.54 4.54 Lone'er Kavanagh Strikes landed / min: 4.97 4.97 Strikes absorbed / min Charles Johnson Strikes absorbed / min: 3.88 3.88 Lone'er Kavanagh Strikes absorbed / min: 4.14 4.14 Striking accuracy Charles Johnson Striking accuracy: 49% 49% Lone'er Kavanagh Striking accuracy: 66% 66% Striking defense Charles Johnson Striking defense: 55% 55% Lone'er Kavanagh Striking defense: 62% 62% Takedowns / 15 min Charles Johnson Takedowns / 15 min: 0.47 0.47 Lone'er Kavanagh Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Takedown defense Charles Johnson Takedown defense: 66% 66% Lone'er Kavanagh Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Charles Johnson Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Lone'er Kavanagh Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 16% 16% GPT: Submission 2% GPT: Decision 82% 82%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Lone'er Kavanagh by Decision, 63.1% confidence

Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.

GPT
Lone'er Kavanagh by Decision, 63% confidence

Kavanagh's superior striking accuracy (66%) and higher strike output (4.97 SLpM) give him an edge in a likely standup battle, especially since neither fighter is a significant grappling threat. Johnson is more defensively sound and has some wrestling ability, but his low takedown accuracy (23%) and Kavanagh's high striking efficiency suggest the fight will favor Kavanagh's pace and precision over three rounds.