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Rongzhu vs Austin Hubbard

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

FINAL: Rongzhu by U-DEC
Rongzhu
Rongzhu
Age 25 · Elo 1505
WLLWL
195 days since last fight
vs
Austin Hubbard
Austin Hubbard
Age 33 · Elo 1452
LWLLL
147 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

RongzhuAustin Hubbard
Claude Claude: Rongzhu 60% Claude: Austin Hubbard 40% 60% 40% GPT GPT: Rongzhu 35% GPT: Austin Hubbard 65% 35% 65% Elo Elo: Rongzhu 58% Elo: Austin Hubbard 42% 58% 42%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

RongzhuAustin Hubbard
Strikes landed / min Rongzhu Strikes landed / min: 5.45 5.45 Austin Hubbard Strikes landed / min: 3.97 3.97 Strikes absorbed / min Rongzhu Strikes absorbed / min: 5.80 5.80 Austin Hubbard Strikes absorbed / min: 4.10 4.10 Striking accuracy Rongzhu Striking accuracy: 51% 51% Austin Hubbard Striking accuracy: 42% 42% Striking defense Rongzhu Striking defense: 44% 44% Austin Hubbard Striking defense: 55% 55% Takedowns / 15 min Rongzhu Takedowns / 15 min: 1.85 1.85 Austin Hubbard Takedowns / 15 min: 1.63 1.63 Takedown defense Rongzhu Takedown defense: 85% 85% Austin Hubbard Takedown defense: 68% 68% Sub attempts / 15 min Rongzhu Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2 Austin Hubbard Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 85% 85%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Rongzhu by Decision, 59.665000000000006% confidence

Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.

GPT
Austin Hubbard by Decision, 65% confidence

Hubbard's superior striking defense and more favorable strike differential suggest he will absorb less damage while maintaining competitive output. Rongzhu is more aggressive but absorbs more strikes than he lands, and Hubbard's takedown defense should limit Rongzhu's wrestling success. Both have low finishing rates, making a decision outcome likely.