Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Sterling holds clear statistical advantages in strike differential (+2.31 vs Ortega's -2.51), striking accuracy (52% vs 37%), and striking defense (58% vs 49%). His higher output and superior ability to avoid damage (SApM 2.3 vs 6.59) suggest he will control the pace at range. While Ortega is dangerous with submissions, Sterling's own grappling is elite, with greater takedown volume (2.31 vs 1.07), and he has rarely been finished. Ortega's leaky striking defense and tendency to absorb high damage make a finish unlikely against a high-output, defensively-sound opponent like Sterling.