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Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato

Light Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley

Paul Craig
Paul Craig
Age 37 · Elo 1493
LLLWL
209 days since last fight
vs
Rodolfo Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato
Age 29 · Elo 1528*
W
559 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Paul CraigRodolfo Bellato
GPT GPT: Paul Craig 30% GPT: Rodolfo Bellato 70% 30% 70% Elo Elo: Paul Craig 45% Elo: Rodolfo Bellato 55% 45% 55%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Paul CraigRodolfo Bellato
Strikes landed / min Paul Craig Strikes landed / min: 2.45 2.45 Rodolfo Bellato Strikes landed / min: 6.47 6.47 Strikes absorbed / min Paul Craig Strikes absorbed / min: 2.97 2.97 Rodolfo Bellato Strikes absorbed / min: 5.90 5.90 Striking accuracy Paul Craig Striking accuracy: 46% 46% Rodolfo Bellato Striking accuracy: 61% 61% Striking defense Paul Craig Striking defense: 44% 44% Rodolfo Bellato Striking defense: 44% 44% Takedowns / 15 min Paul Craig Takedowns / 15 min: 1.68 1.68 Rodolfo Bellato Takedowns / 15 min: 1.09 1.09 Takedown defense Paul Craig Takedown defense: 37% 37% Rodolfo Bellato Takedown defense: 100% 100% Sub attempts / 15 min Paul Craig Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.6 1.6 Rodolfo Bellato Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 60% 60% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 30% 30%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO, 70% confidence

Bellato's superior striking volume and accuracy could overwhelm Craig. While Craig has a decent submission game, Bellato's 100% takedown defense would make it difficult for Craig to bring the fight to the ground.