Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick
Women's Flyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Namajunas brings superior technical striking and defensive movement to this matchup, with a 64% striking defense compared to Maverick's 59%. While both fighters have similar striking volume (3.7 vs 3.59 SLPM), Namajunas's orthodox stance creates favorable angles against Maverick's southpaw approach. Maverick holds a grappling advantage with 2.43 TDs per fight versus Namajunas's 1.55, but Namajunas's 59% TDD will mitigate some of this threat. Both fighters are on 3-fight win streaks, showing strong form, but Namajunas's championship experience and higher level of competition provides a significant edge. Namajunas's technical striking precision and footwork will allow her to control distance and accumulate points while avoiding Maverick's power shots and takedown attempts.
Namajunas has a higher strike accuracy and defense, and her grappling statistics are also superior. Despite Maverick's slightly better win rate, Namajunas' overall statistics suggest she may have the edge in this match.