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Rose Namajunas vs Miranda Maverick

Women's Flyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley

FINAL: Rose Namajunas by U-DEC
Rose Namajunas
Rose Namajunas
Age 32 · Elo 1612
WWLLW
448 days since last fight
vs
Miranda Maverick
Miranda Maverick
Age 27 · Elo 1560
WWWWL
181 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Rose NamajunasMiranda Maverick
Claude Claude: Rose Namajunas 65% Claude: Miranda Maverick 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Rose Namajunas 60% GPT: Miranda Maverick 40% 60% 40% Elo Elo: Rose Namajunas 57% Elo: Miranda Maverick 43% 57% 43%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Rose NamajunasMiranda Maverick
Strikes landed / min Rose Namajunas Strikes landed / min: 3.70 3.70 Miranda Maverick Strikes landed / min: 3.59 3.59 Strikes absorbed / min Rose Namajunas Strikes absorbed / min: 3.38 3.38 Miranda Maverick Strikes absorbed / min: 2.46 2.46 Striking accuracy Rose Namajunas Striking accuracy: 42% 42% Miranda Maverick Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Striking defense Rose Namajunas Striking defense: 64% 64% Miranda Maverick Striking defense: 59% 59% Takedowns / 15 min Rose Namajunas Takedowns / 15 min: 1.55 1.55 Miranda Maverick Takedowns / 15 min: 2.43 2.43 Takedown defense Rose Namajunas Takedown defense: 59% 59% Miranda Maverick Takedown defense: 41% 41% Sub attempts / 15 min Rose Namajunas Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Miranda Maverick Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 20% 20% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 15% 15% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Rose Namajunas by Decision, 65% confidence

Namajunas brings superior technical striking and defensive movement to this matchup, with a 64% striking defense compared to Maverick's 59%. While both fighters have similar striking volume (3.7 vs 3.59 SLPM), Namajunas's orthodox stance creates favorable angles against Maverick's southpaw approach. Maverick holds a grappling advantage with 2.43 TDs per fight versus Namajunas's 1.55, but Namajunas's 59% TDD will mitigate some of this threat. Both fighters are on 3-fight win streaks, showing strong form, but Namajunas's championship experience and higher level of competition provides a significant edge. Namajunas's technical striking precision and footwork will allow her to control distance and accumulate points while avoiding Maverick's power shots and takedown attempts.

GPT
Rose Namajunas by Decision, 60% confidence

Namajunas has a higher strike accuracy and defense, and her grappling statistics are also superior. Despite Maverick's slightly better win rate, Namajunas' overall statistics suggest she may have the edge in this match.