Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Buckley enters this matchup with tremendous momentum, riding a five-fight win streak with three recent KO/TKO finishes. Usman, while historically dominant, has lost three consecutive fights and showed diminishing durability. Buckley's southpaw stance creates problematic angles for Usman's switch stance, and his explosive striking combined with 57% striking defense gives him a counter-striking advantage. Usman's wrestling advantage (89% TDD vs Buckley's 69%) will be crucial, but his recent chin vulnerability and Buckley's 4.13 SLPM with knockout power presents significant danger. Usman's recent move up to middleweight and back down suggests potential weight management issues, while Buckley has been consistently active at welterweight with shorter recovery periods between fights (37.8 days vs Usman's 196 days average).

Usman has a higher strike accuracy, takedown accuracy, and takedown defense. His defensive efficiency is also significantly better than Buckley's. Despite similar striking styles, Usman's stats suggest a more effective overall performance.