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Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley

FINAL: Michael Chiesa by U-DEC
Michael Chiesa
Michael Chiesa
Age 37 · Elo 1610
WWLLL
188 days since last fight
vs
Court McGee
Court McGee
Age 40 · Elo 1488
WLLLW
427 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Michael ChiesaCourt McGee
GPT GPT: Michael Chiesa 65% GPT: Court McGee 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Michael Chiesa 67% Elo: Court McGee 33% 67% 33%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Michael ChiesaCourt McGee
Strikes landed / min Michael Chiesa Strikes landed / min: 1.86 1.86 Court McGee Strikes landed / min: 4.50 4.50 Strikes absorbed / min Michael Chiesa Strikes absorbed / min: 1.72 1.72 Court McGee Strikes absorbed / min: 3.65 3.65 Striking accuracy Michael Chiesa Striking accuracy: 40% 40% Court McGee Striking accuracy: 36% 36% Striking defense Michael Chiesa Striking defense: 53% 53% Court McGee Striking defense: 60% 60% Takedowns / 15 min Michael Chiesa Takedowns / 15 min: 3.35 3.35 Court McGee Takedowns / 15 min: 1.78 1.78 Takedown defense Michael Chiesa Takedown defense: 60% 60% Court McGee Takedown defense: 70% 70% Sub attempts / 15 min Michael Chiesa Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.0 1.0 Court McGee Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 15% 15% GPT: Submission 50% 50% GPT: Decision 35% 35%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Michael Chiesa by Submission, 65% confidence

Chiesa's superior grappling and submission skills give him the edge. Also, his performance against common opponents has been better than McGee's.