Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Barcelos presents a significant stylistic challenge for Garbrandt due to his superior volume striking (5.22 vs 2.98 SLPM) and more diverse offensive toolkit. While Garbrandt possesses the one-shot KO power that's always dangerous, his defensive vulnerabilities (absorbing 3.76 strikes per minute) make him susceptible to Barcelos' high-output approach. Barcelos' grappling advantage (1.86 vs 1.03 TDAvg) provides an additional path to victory, especially considering his submission threat (0.6 SubAvg) against Garbrandt who has shown vulnerability to submissions in recent fights. Barcelos' more consistent recent form contrasts with Garbrandt's volatility, and his 85% TDD should neutralize Garbrandt's takedown attempts, forcing a striking match where Barcelos' volume will be the difference-maker.

Based on the statistics, Barcelos has a higher strike volume and accuracy, which might give him an edge in the stand-up exchanges. Although Garbrandt has a higher takedown defense, Barcelos has a decent takedown accuracy and more takedowns per fight, which may allow him to control the fight on the ground. The physical advantages are mixed, but the slight reach disadvantage for Garbrandt might also favor Barcelos.