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Ricky Simon vs Charles Jourdain

Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley

Ricky Simon
Ricky Simon
Age 32 · Elo 1554
WLLLW
111 days since last fight
vs
Charles Jourdain
Charles Jourdain
Age 29 · Elo 1537
LLLWW
224 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Ricky SimonCharles Jourdain
GPT GPT: Ricky Simon 65% GPT: Charles Jourdain 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Ricky Simon 52% Elo: Charles Jourdain 48% 52% 48%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Ricky SimonCharles Jourdain
Strikes landed / min Ricky Simon Strikes landed / min: 2.99 2.99 Charles Jourdain Strikes landed / min: 5.36 5.36 Strikes absorbed / min Ricky Simon Strikes absorbed / min: 3.84 3.84 Charles Jourdain Strikes absorbed / min: 4.11 4.11 Striking accuracy Ricky Simon Striking accuracy: 43% 43% Charles Jourdain Striking accuracy: 49% 49% Striking defense Ricky Simon Striking defense: 61% 61% Charles Jourdain Striking defense: 56% 56% Takedowns / 15 min Ricky Simon Takedowns / 15 min: 5.20 5.20 Charles Jourdain Takedowns / 15 min: 0.38 0.38 Takedown defense Ricky Simon Takedown defense: 75% 75% Charles Jourdain Takedown defense: 46% 46% Sub attempts / 15 min Ricky Simon Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Charles Jourdain Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 15% 15% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Ricky Simon by Decision, 65% confidence

Ricky Simon has a significant advantage in takedowns and takedown defense, which could negate Jourdain's striking volume. Although Jourdain has a higher SLPM, his takedown defense is significantly lower than Simon's takedown average. This could allow Simon to control the fight and potentially win by decision.