Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Petroski

Middleweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley

FINAL: Edmen Shahbazyan by U-DEC
Edmen Shahbazyan
Edmen Shahbazyan
Age 27 · Elo 1573
WWLLW
118 days since last fight
vs
Andre Petroski
Andre Petroski
Age 34 · Elo 1564
WLWWL
118 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Edmen ShahbazyanAndre Petroski
Claude Claude: Edmen Shahbazyan 30% Claude: Andre Petroski 70% 30% 70% GPT GPT: Edmen Shahbazyan 25% GPT: Andre Petroski 75% 25% 75% Elo Elo: Edmen Shahbazyan 51% Elo: Andre Petroski 49% 51% 49%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Edmen ShahbazyanAndre Petroski
Strikes landed / min Edmen Shahbazyan Strikes landed / min: 4.06 4.06 Andre Petroski Strikes landed / min: 2.75 2.75 Strikes absorbed / min Edmen Shahbazyan Strikes absorbed / min: 3.87 3.87 Andre Petroski Strikes absorbed / min: 2.99 2.99 Striking accuracy Edmen Shahbazyan Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Andre Petroski Striking accuracy: 49% 49% Striking defense Edmen Shahbazyan Striking defense: 50% 50% Andre Petroski Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Edmen Shahbazyan Takedowns / 15 min: 1.43 1.43 Andre Petroski Takedowns / 15 min: 3.13 3.13 Takedown defense Edmen Shahbazyan Takedown defense: 66% 66% Andre Petroski Takedown defense: 86% 86% Sub attempts / 15 min Edmen Shahbazyan Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Andre Petroski Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.2 1.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 20% 20% Claude: Submission 55% 55% Claude: Decision 25% 25%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 60% 60% GPT: Decision 20% 20%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Andre Petroski by Submission, 70% confidence

Petroski holds a decisive grappling advantage with 3.91 takedowns per fight (vs Shahbazyan's 2.01) and superior 80% TDD (vs Shahbazyan's 65%). Critically, Petroski averages 1.7 submissions per fight, targeting Shahbazyan's documented submission vulnerability (2 recent submission losses). While Shahbazyan has the striking volume advantage (3.77 vs 2.77 SLPM), Petroski's 52% striking defense compared to Shahbazyan's 46% suggests better defensive awareness. Their common opponent analysis heavily favors Petroski, who defeated Gerald Meerschaert while Shahbazyan lost via submission to the same opponent. Shahbazyan's inconsistent performances (3-5 in his last 8) contrast with Petroski's more stable record (4-1 in last 5), and Petroski's switch stance will create problematic angles against Shahbazyan's orthodox approach.

GPT
Andre Petroski by Submission, 75% confidence

Andre Petroski's superior takedown accuracy and defense, coupled with his higher submission average suggest that he has a better grappling game than Edmen Shahbazyan. Additionally, performance insights show that Petroski has performed better against common opponents.