Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Petroski
Middleweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Petroski holds a decisive grappling advantage with 3.91 takedowns per fight (vs Shahbazyan's 2.01) and superior 80% TDD (vs Shahbazyan's 65%). Critically, Petroski averages 1.7 submissions per fight, targeting Shahbazyan's documented submission vulnerability (2 recent submission losses). While Shahbazyan has the striking volume advantage (3.77 vs 2.77 SLPM), Petroski's 52% striking defense compared to Shahbazyan's 46% suggests better defensive awareness. Their common opponent analysis heavily favors Petroski, who defeated Gerald Meerschaert while Shahbazyan lost via submission to the same opponent. Shahbazyan's inconsistent performances (3-5 in his last 8) contrast with Petroski's more stable record (4-1 in last 5), and Petroski's switch stance will create problematic angles against Shahbazyan's orthodox approach.
Andre Petroski's superior takedown accuracy and defense, coupled with his higher submission average suggest that he has a better grappling game than Edmen Shahbazyan. Additionally, performance insights show that Petroski has performed better against common opponents.