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Navajo Stirling vs Rodolfo Bellato

Light Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

FINAL: Navajo Stirling by U-DEC
Navajo Stirling
Navajo Stirling
Age 27 · Elo 1556*
WW
140 days since last fight
vs
Rodolfo Bellato
Rodolfo Bellato
Age 29 · Elo 1528*
W
664 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Navajo StirlingRodolfo Bellato
Claude Claude: Navajo Stirling 32% Claude: Rodolfo Bellato 68% 32% 68% GPT GPT: Navajo Stirling 38% GPT: Rodolfo Bellato 62% 38% 62% Elo Elo: Navajo Stirling 54% Elo: Rodolfo Bellato 46% 54% 46%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Navajo StirlingRodolfo Bellato
Strikes landed / min Navajo Stirling Strikes landed / min: 5.82 5.82 Rodolfo Bellato Strikes landed / min: 6.47 6.47 Strikes absorbed / min Navajo Stirling Strikes absorbed / min: 2.55 2.55 Rodolfo Bellato Strikes absorbed / min: 5.90 5.90 Striking accuracy Navajo Stirling Striking accuracy: 56% 56% Rodolfo Bellato Striking accuracy: 61% 61% Striking defense Navajo Stirling Striking defense: 58% 58% Rodolfo Bellato Striking defense: 44% 44% Takedowns / 15 min Navajo Stirling Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Rodolfo Bellato Takedowns / 15 min: 1.09 1.09 Takedown defense Navajo Stirling Takedown defense: 72% 72% Rodolfo Bellato Takedown defense: 100% 100% Sub attempts / 15 min Navajo Stirling Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Rodolfo Bellato Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 28% 28% GPT: Submission 12% 12% GPT: Decision 60% 60%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO, 68% confidence

Bellato's superior striking accuracy (61% vs 56%) and proven finishing ability give him the edge. His 100% takedown defense neutralizes any wrestling threat, while his higher output (6.47 SLPM vs 5.82) and recent KO victory show he's in prime form. Stirling's limited UFC experience and lack of recorded fights suggest vulnerability against proven finishers.

GPT
Rodolfo Bellato by Decision, 62% confidence

Bellato's higher striking output and accuracy, combined with his ability to mix in takedowns and 100% takedown defense, give him a slight edge. However, his poor striking defense (44%) and high strikes absorbed per minute make a finish less likely. Stirling is more defensively sound and efficient but lacks grappling threat and has lower output.