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Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina

Women's Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

FINAL: Michelle Montague by U-DEC
Michelle Montague
Michelle Montague
Age 31 · Elo 1539*
No UFC fights on record
vs
Luana Carolina
Luana Carolina
Age 32 · Elo 1516
WWWLL
594 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Michelle MontagueLuana Carolina
Claude Claude: Michelle Montague 18% Claude: Luana Carolina 82% 18% 82% GPT GPT: Michelle Montague 25% GPT: Luana Carolina 75% 25% 75% Elo Elo: Michelle Montague 53% Elo: Luana Carolina 47% 53% 47%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Michelle MontagueLuana Carolina
Strikes landed / min Michelle Montague Strikes landed / min: no data - Luana Carolina Strikes landed / min: 4.81 4.81 Strikes absorbed / min Michelle Montague Strikes absorbed / min: no data - Luana Carolina Strikes absorbed / min: 3.54 3.54 Striking accuracy Michelle Montague Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Luana Carolina Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Michelle Montague Striking defense: 0% 0% Luana Carolina Striking defense: 50% 50% Takedowns / 15 min Michelle Montague Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Luana Carolina Takedowns / 15 min: 0.34 0.34 Takedown defense Michelle Montague Takedown defense: 0% 0% Luana Carolina Takedown defense: 74% 74% Sub attempts / 15 min Michelle Montague Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Luana Carolina Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 28% 28% Claude: Submission 17% 17% Claude: Decision 55% 55%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 12% 12% GPT: Submission 8% 8% GPT: Decision 80% 80%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Luana Carolina by Decision, 82% confidence

Carolina brings extensive UFC experience with a 70% win rate and is on a 4-fight win streak including a recent KO. Montague is making her UFC debut with no recorded stats or fight history in the database. Carolina's proven striking (4.81 SLPM, 50% accuracy) and grappling (0.6 sub avg) against an unknown commodity makes this a clear mismatch. The 10-pound weight advantage for Carolina at bantamweight is also significant.

GPT
Luana Carolina by Decision, 75% confidence

Luana Carolina has a clear statistical advantage in UFC experience, striking output, accuracy, and defensive metrics. Montague is making her UFC debut with no available data, putting her at a significant disadvantage against a proven, durable opponent with effective takedown defense and high striking volume.