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UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesWelterweightPrelims
Jonathan Micallef
Jonathan
Micallef
1-0UFC
26 yrsElo 1544*
VS
Oban Elliott
Oban
Elliott
2-2UFC
27 yrsElo 1473
Who wins
Claude
68%
Elliott
GPT
78%
Elliott
Elo
60%
Micallef
1544 vs 1473
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'0" Height 6'0"
77" Reach 72"
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
0.33 Landed / min 3.82
1.66 Absorbed / minlower better 2.24
25% Strike accuracy 47%
16% Strike defense 61%
4.97 Takedowns / 15 2.67
50% TD accuracy 50%
50% TD defense 72%
5.0 Subs / 15 0.0
Small sample: Jonathan Micallef, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 60%
60%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 15%Decision 60%
GPT: KO/TKO 10%GPT: Submission 7%GPT: Decision 83%
83%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 10%Submission 7%Decision 83%
Formnewest first
Jonathan Micallef230 days out
W
Kevin Jousset
U-DEC · 2025-02-08
Oban Elliott98 days out
L
Seokhyeon Ko
U-DEC · 2025-06-21
L
Bassil Hafez
· 2024-11-16
W
Preston Parsons
U-DEC · 2024-02-17
W
Val Woodburn
U-DEC · 2024-02-17
Why
Claude
Oban Elliott
68% · Decision
  • Elliott lands 11.5x more strikes per minute with better accuracy (47% vs 25%)
  • 61% striking defense vs Micallef's 16% creates massive defensive gap
  • Elliott's 72% takedown defense neutralizes Micallef's grappling
  • Southpaw vs orthodox creates angle advantages for Elliott
Write-up

Elliott's superior striking volume (3.82 SLPM vs 0.33) and defensive metrics (61% vs 16%) create overwhelming advantages. While Micallef shows submission threat (5 subs per fight), Elliott's 72% takedown defense and experience edge should control range and pace. Elliott's 3-fight UFC win streak demonstrates consistency.

GPT
Oban Elliott
78% · Decision
  • Elliott's striking volume and accuracy
  • Superior defensive metrics for Elliott (StrDef 61% vs. 16%)
  • Elliott's takedown defense advantage (72% vs. 50%)
Write-up

Oban Elliott has a significant advantage in striking volume, accuracy, and defense, with a SLpM of 3.82 vs. Micallef's 0.33, 47% accuracy vs. 25%, and 61% striking defense. He also boasts superior takedown defense (72% vs. 50%) and is less likely to be controlled on the ground. Micallef's grappling statistics are inflated by extremely low sample size and show little striking output or success, making him unlikely to impose his game. Elliott's balanced offensive and defensive metrics point to a clear decision win unless Micallef can secure a rare early submission.