Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Elliott's superior striking volume (3.82 SLPM vs 0.33) and defensive metrics (61% vs 16%) create overwhelming advantages. While Micallef shows submission threat (5 subs per fight), Elliott's 72% takedown defense and experience edge should control range and pace. Elliott's 3-fight UFC win streak demonstrates consistency.

Oban Elliott has a significant advantage in striking volume, accuracy, and defense, with a SLpM of 3.82 vs. Micallef's 0.33, 47% accuracy vs. 25%, and 61% striking defense. He also boasts superior takedown defense (72% vs. 50%) and is less likely to be controlled on the ground. Micallef's grappling statistics are inflated by extremely low sample size and show little striking output or success, making him unlikely to impose his game. Elliott's balanced offensive and defensive metrics point to a clear decision win unless Micallef can secure a rare early submission.