Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Matthews' superior defensive metrics (61% vs 51% striking defense) and recent form trajectory give him the edge. While Magny has performed better against common opponents historically, Matthews has shown improvement in his last three fights. The Australian crowd advantage and Matthews' ability to mix striking with takedowns (1.56 avg) against Magny's vulnerable takedown defense (54%) creates multiple paths to victory.

Magny's superior reach, higher takedown activity, and proven record against common opponents give him a technical edge in a likely competitive but controlled fight. Matthews is defensively sound but struggles against rangy, high-volume fighters with clinch acumen, which matches Magny's profile.