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WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesWelterweightPrelims
Jake
Matthews
15-7UFC
VS
Neil
Magny
22-11UFC
Final: Neil Magny by SUB D'Arce Choke
Who wins
Matthews winsevenMagny wins
GPT 68% Magny
Elo 54% Magny
Claude 62% Matthews
Claude
62%
Matthews
GPT
68%
Magny
Elo
54%
Magny
1590 vs 1615
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'11"
Height
6'3"
73"
Reach
80"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
3.38
Landed / min
3.40
2.54
Absorbed / minlower better
2.44
44%
Strike accuracy
46%
61%
Strike defense
51%
1.56
Takedowns / 15
2.17
41%
TD accuracy
39%
64%
TD defense
55%
0.6
Subs / 15
0.3
How it ends
60%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 15%Submission 25%Decision 60%
78%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 10%Submission 12%Decision 78%
Formnewest first
Jake Matthews77 days out
W
Chidi Njokuani
SUB Rear Naked Choke · 2025-07-12
W
Francisco Prado
U-DEC · 2025-02-08
W
Phil Rowe
U-DEC · 2024-01-01
L
Michael Morales
U-DEC · 2023-11-18
W
Darrius Flowers
SUB · 2023-07-29
Neil Magny560 days out
L
Michael Morales
KO/TKO · 2024-03-16
W
Mike Malott
KO/TKO · 2024-01-20
L
Ian Machado Garry
U-DEC · 2023-08-19
W
Phil Rowe
S-DEC · 2023-06-24
L
Gilbert Burns
SUB · 2023-01-21
Why
Claude
Jake Matthews
62% · Decision
- Matthews' 10% striking defense advantage and positive momentum (3-2 recent)
- Home crowd advantage in Perth providing psychological edge
- Magny coming off back-to-back KO losses showing declining durability
- Matthews' submission threat (0.6 per fight) vs Magny's low submission defense
Write-up
Matthews' superior defensive metrics (61% vs 51% striking defense) and recent form trajectory give him the edge. While Magny has performed better against common opponents historically, Matthews has shown improvement in his last three fights. The Australian crowd advantage and Matthews' ability to mix striking with takedowns (1.56 avg) against Magny's vulnerable takedown defense (54%) creates multiple paths to victory.
GPT
Neil Magny
68% · Decision
- 7-inch reach advantage for Magny
- Magny's higher takedown volume (2.15 vs 1.56 per 15min)
- Stronger performances against common opponents
Write-up
Magny's superior reach, higher takedown activity, and proven record against common opponents give him a technical edge in a likely competitive but controlled fight. Matthews is defensively sound but struggles against rangy, high-volume fighters with clinch acumen, which matches Magny's profile.