Jimmy Crute vs Ivan Erslan

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Crute's aggressive grappling approach and 2.0 submissions per fight average will overwhelm Erslan, who has shown vulnerability on the ground with only 75% takedown defense. Crute's 4.84 takedowns per fight and superior grappling pedigree should dominate Erslan, who averages only 1 takedown per fight with 50% accuracy. Erslan's 0-2 UFC record shows he's struggling at this level, while Crute's experience against top competition gives him the edge despite recent losses.

Crute's wrestling-heavy approach (4.84 takedowns per fight, 57% accuracy) and high submission average (2 per fight) create a significant stylistic advantage against Erslan, whose takedown defense (75%) is solid but largely untested at the UFC level. Crute's superior grappling volume and finishing instincts on the mat outweigh Erslan's marginal striking defense advantage and reach. Erslan's -0.4 strike differential and low output will make it difficult for him to keep Crute off him or pile up points.