Junior Tafa vs Ibo Aslan

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Aslan's striking volume (8.34 SLPM) and defense (64%) significantly outclass Tafa's (3.36 SLPM, 51% defense). Tafa is dropping from heavyweight to light heavyweight for the first time, which could impact his durability. Aslan's +4.0 striking differential compared to Tafa's +0.52 shows a massive gap in striking effectiveness. Tafa's 42.8% win rate and recent submission losses indicate vulnerability.

Ibo Aslan possesses a significantly higher striking volume (8.34 SLpM vs 3.36), superior striking defense (64% vs 51%), and better striking differential (+4 vs +0.52). Both fighters lack grappling output, making this a pure striking matchup. Aslan's pace, power, and defensive stats give him a clear edge over Tafa, whose win rate and striking metrics are notably lower.