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Colby Thicknesse vs Josias Musasa

Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

FINAL: Colby Thicknesse by U-DEC
Colby Thicknesse
Colby Thicknesse
Age 26 · Elo 1500*
L
230 days since last fight
vs
Josias Musasa
Josias Musasa
Age 26 · Elo 1455*
L
196 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Colby ThicknesseJosias Musasa
Claude Claude: Colby Thicknesse 35% Claude: Josias Musasa 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: Colby Thicknesse 26% GPT: Josias Musasa 74% 26% 74% Elo Elo: Colby Thicknesse 56% Elo: Josias Musasa 44% 56% 44%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Colby ThicknesseJosias Musasa
Strikes landed / min Colby Thicknesse Strikes landed / min: no data - Josias Musasa Strikes landed / min: 3.33 3.33 Strikes absorbed / min Colby Thicknesse Strikes absorbed / min: no data - Josias Musasa Strikes absorbed / min: 4.53 4.53 Striking accuracy Colby Thicknesse Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Josias Musasa Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Striking defense Colby Thicknesse Striking defense: 0% 0% Josias Musasa Striking defense: 27% 27% Takedowns / 15 min Colby Thicknesse Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Josias Musasa Takedowns / 15 min: 1.00 1.00 Takedown defense Colby Thicknesse Takedown defense: 0% 0% Josias Musasa Takedown defense: 75% 75% Sub attempts / 15 min Colby Thicknesse Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Josias Musasa Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.0 1.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 40% 40% Claude: Submission 25% 25% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 13% 13% GPT: Submission 22% 22% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Josias Musasa by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Musasa's southpaw stance and 74-inch reach against Thicknesse's unknown measurements suggest physical advantages. With Thicknesse having no UFC data and Musasa showing 100% takedown accuracy with submission ability, the experience and versatility favor Musasa. Orthodox vs southpaw creates openings for Musasa's power shots.

GPT
Josias Musasa by Decision, 74% confidence

Josias Musasa has established UFC-level experience and statistical output, showing solid striking volume, decent accuracy, and a strong grappling base with perfect takedown accuracy and good submission threat. Colby Thicknesse has no UFC data, indicating either a debut or insufficient sample size, making him an unknown quantity at this level. Musasa's willingness to mix striking and grappling, along with his ability to land takedowns, gives him a clear edge over an unproven opponent.