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UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. ReyesBantamweightPrelims
Colby ThicknesseWINNER
Colby
Thicknesse
0-1UFC
26 yrsElo 1520*
VS
Josias Musasa
Josias
Musasa
0-1UFC
26 yrsElo 1455*
Final: Colby Thicknesse by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
65%
Musasa
GPT
74%
Musasa
Elo
59%
Thicknesse
1520 vs 1455
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
n/a Height 5'8"
n/a Reach 74"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
n/a Landed / min 3.33
n/a Absorbed / minlower better 4.53
0% Strike accuracy 44%
0% Strike defense 27%
n/a Takedowns / 15 1.00
0% TD accuracy 100%
0% TD defense 75%
n/a Subs / 15 1.0
Small sample: Colby Thicknesse, 1 UFC fight; Josias Musasa, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 40%Claude: Submission 25%Claude: Decision 35%
40%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 40%Submission 25%Decision 35%
GPT: KO/TKO 13%GPT: Submission 22%GPT: Decision 65%
65%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 13%Submission 22%Decision 65%
Formnewest first
Colby Thicknesse230 days out
L
Aleksandre Topuria
U-DEC · 2025-02-08
Josias Musasa196 days out
L
Carlos Vera
SUB Rear Naked Choke · 2025-03-15
Why
Claude
Josias Musasa
65% · KO/TKO
  • Musasa's 74-inch reach likely significant advantage over debutant
  • Southpaw vs orthodox stance matchup favors experienced Musasa
  • 100% takedown accuracy with submission threat creates multiple paths
  • Thicknesse UFC debut against experienced opponent creates pressure
Write-up

Musasa's southpaw stance and 74-inch reach against Thicknesse's unknown measurements suggest physical advantages. With Thicknesse having no UFC data and Musasa showing 100% takedown accuracy with submission ability, the experience and versatility favor Musasa. Orthodox vs southpaw creates openings for Musasa's power shots.

GPT
Josias Musasa
74% · Decision
  • Significant statistical advantage for Musasa in both striking and grappling
  • Proven takedown ability and submission threat from Musasa
  • Complete lack of UFC data for Thicknesse, introducing risk and unknowns
Write-up

Josias Musasa has established UFC-level experience and statistical output, showing solid striking volume, decent accuracy, and a strong grappling base with perfect takedown accuracy and good submission threat. Colby Thicknesse has no UFC data, indicating either a debut or insufficient sample size, making him an unknown quantity at this level. Musasa's willingness to mix striking and grappling, along with his ability to land takedowns, gives him a clear edge over an unproven opponent.