Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
FINAL: Colby Thicknesse by U-DEC
Colby Thicknesse
Age 26 · Elo 1500*
L
230 days since last fight
vs
Josias Musasa
Age 26 · Elo 1455*
L
196 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Colby ThicknesseJosias Musasa
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Colby ThicknesseJosias Musasa
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Josias Musasa by KO/TKO, 65% confidence
Musasa's southpaw stance and 74-inch reach against Thicknesse's unknown measurements suggest physical advantages. With Thicknesse having no UFC data and Musasa showing 100% takedown accuracy with submission ability, the experience and versatility favor Musasa. Orthodox vs southpaw creates openings for Musasa's power shots.
GPT
Josias Musasa by Decision, 74% confidence
Josias Musasa has established UFC-level experience and statistical output, showing solid striking volume, decent accuracy, and a strong grappling base with perfect takedown accuracy and good submission threat. Colby Thicknesse has no UFC data, indicating either a debut or insufficient sample size, making him an unknown quantity at this level. Musasa's willingness to mix striking and grappling, along with his ability to land takedowns, gives him a clear edge over an unproven opponent.