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Tom Nolan vs Charlie Campbell

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

FINAL: Tom Nolan by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Tom Nolan
Tom Nolan
Age 25 · Elo 1556
WWLW
230 days since last fight
vs
Charlie Campbell
Charlie Campbell
Age 30 · Elo 1517*
WW
539 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Tom NolanCharlie Campbell
Claude Claude: Tom Nolan 65% Claude: Charlie Campbell 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Tom Nolan 32% GPT: Charlie Campbell 68% 32% 68% Elo Elo: Tom Nolan 56% Elo: Charlie Campbell 44% 56% 44%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Tom NolanCharlie Campbell
Strikes landed / min Tom Nolan Strikes landed / min: 6.68 6.68 Charlie Campbell Strikes landed / min: 5.23 5.23 Strikes absorbed / min Tom Nolan Strikes absorbed / min: 5.17 5.17 Charlie Campbell Strikes absorbed / min: 4.17 4.17 Striking accuracy Tom Nolan Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Charlie Campbell Striking accuracy: 51% 51% Striking defense Tom Nolan Striking defense: 47% 47% Charlie Campbell Striking defense: 55% 55% Takedowns / 15 min Tom Nolan Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Charlie Campbell Takedowns / 15 min: 2.45 2.45 Takedown defense Tom Nolan Takedown defense: 66% 66% Charlie Campbell Takedown defense: 62% 62% Sub attempts / 15 min Tom Nolan Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7 Charlie Campbell Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 45% 45% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 45% 45%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 22% 22% GPT: Submission 8% 8% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Tom Nolan by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Nolan's significant volume advantage (6.68 vs 5.55 SLPM) combined with his southpaw stance creates awkward angles for the orthodox Campbell. Both fighters showed KO power against Alex Reyes, but Nolan's 3-inch height advantage and recent form (2-fight win streak) give him the edge. Campbell's 203-day layoff since April 2024 raises activity concerns.

GPT
Charlie Campbell by Decision, 68% confidence

Campbell's superior striking accuracy, higher striking defense, and strong wrestling output (2.95 takedowns per fight) present stylistic challenges for Nolan, whose takedown defense (66%) and lack of offensive wrestling may leave him vulnerable to Campbell's grappling. While Nolan throws more volume, Campbell absorbs less damage (3.73 SApM vs 5.17) and has a higher win rate, suggesting better overall fight control.