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Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes

Light Heavyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes

FINAL: Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO Punches
Carlos Ulberg
Carlos Ulberg
Age 34 · Elo 1623
WLWWW
189 days since last fight
vs
Dominick Reyes
Dominick Reyes
Age 35 · Elo 1601
WWWLL
168 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Carlos UlbergDominick Reyes
Claude Claude: Carlos Ulberg 72% Claude: Dominick Reyes 28% 72% 28% GPT GPT: Carlos Ulberg 73% GPT: Dominick Reyes 27% 73% 27% Elo Elo: Carlos Ulberg 53% Elo: Dominick Reyes 47% 53% 47%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Carlos UlbergDominick Reyes
Strikes landed / min Carlos Ulberg Strikes landed / min: 7.41 7.41 Dominick Reyes Strikes landed / min: 4.87 4.87 Strikes absorbed / min Carlos Ulberg Strikes absorbed / min: 3.60 3.60 Dominick Reyes Strikes absorbed / min: 3.75 3.75 Striking accuracy Carlos Ulberg Striking accuracy: 59% 59% Dominick Reyes Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Carlos Ulberg Striking defense: 52% 52% Dominick Reyes Striking defense: 48% 48% Takedowns / 15 min Carlos Ulberg Takedowns / 15 min: 0.95 0.95 Dominick Reyes Takedowns / 15 min: 0.35 0.35 Takedown defense Carlos Ulberg Takedown defense: 75% 75% Dominick Reyes Takedown defense: 80% 80% Sub attempts / 15 min Carlos Ulberg Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Dominick Reyes Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 65% 65% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 68% 68% GPT: Submission 4% GPT: Decision 28% 28%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO, 72% confidence

Ulberg's superior striking metrics (59% accuracy vs 50%, 7.41 SLPM vs 4.87) combined with Reyes' recent vulnerability to knockouts (3 KO/TKO losses in last 5) create a clear path to victory. Ulberg's 52% striking defense is better than Reyes' 48%, and his +3.81 striking differential dwarfs Reyes' +1.12. The common opponent analysis shows Reyes beat Oezdemir while Ulberg lost, but Ulberg has evolved significantly since then.

GPT
Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO, 73% confidence

Ulberg's high striking volume, accuracy, and positive strike differential suggest a sustained offensive advantage. Reyes has shown defensive vulnerabilities (48% striking defense) and has been knocked out in recent fights. While Reyes has faced higher-level opposition, his recent skid and Ulberg's surging form make Ulberg the likely winner, especially given Reyes's susceptibility to damage.