Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Cortes Acosta holds significant striking volume advantage (5.53 vs 2.43 SLPM) and better defensive metrics (55% vs 44%). While Gaziev has shown knockout power and better takedown success, his recent KO loss raises durability concerns. Cortes Acosta's 2-inch reach advantage and superior output should control distance effectively. Gaziev's 30% takedown accuracy is concerning against Cortes Acosta's 72% TDD.

Cortes Acosta's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive efficiency give him a statistical edge over Gaziev, who absorbs more strikes than he lands and has lower striking defense. While Gaziev's grappling is more active, his low takedown accuracy and Acosta's solid takedown defense (72%) limit his ability to control the fight on the ground. With both fighters having similar physical stats and no clear finishing rates, Acosta's consistent output and favorable striking differential suggest he will outpoint Gaziev over three rounds.