- 8-year UFC layoff for Horiguchi creates massive uncertainty
- Ulanbekov averages 2.1 submissions per fight, elite finishing rate
- 4-inch reach advantage for Ulanbekov aids clinch entries
- Recent form shows Ulanbekov finishing fights, Horiguchi's last UFC run was decision-heavy
Write-up
Ulanbekov's grappling-heavy approach (3.71 TDAvg, 2.1 SubAvg) presents major problems for Horiguchi, who hasn't competed in UFC since 2016. The 8-year layoff is massive at flyweight. Ulanbekov's recent submission victories show his ground game is sharp, while Horiguchi's 55% TDD and zero submission average indicate vulnerability on the mat. The southpaw vs orthodox dynamic favors Ulanbekov's entries.
- Striking defense and differential favor Horiguchi
- Horiguchi's reach and footwork advantages
- Ulanbekov's reliance on grappling vs Horiguchi's scramble ability
Write-up
Kyoji Horiguchi holds a significant striking differential (+1.15 vs -0.08), better striking defense (62% vs 51%), and a 4-inch reach advantage. While Ulanbekov offers higher submission threat (2.1 submissions per fight) and more takedown volume, Horiguchi's superior footwork, speed, and proven ability to handle grapplers at a high level (as shown in his Bellator and RIZIN career) make him the favorite to outpoint Ulanbekov over three rounds. Ulanbekov's path is grappling-heavy, but Horiguchi's historically strong scrambling and defensive discipline limit finishing threats.