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Tagir Ulanbekov vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Flyweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

FINAL: Kyoji Horiguchi by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Tagir Ulanbekov
Tagir Ulanbekov
Age 34 · Elo 1568
WWWWL
154 days since last fight
vs
Kyoji Horiguchi
Kyoji Horiguchi
Age 35 · Elo 1611
WWWLW
3290 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Tagir UlanbekovKyoji Horiguchi
Claude Claude: Tagir Ulanbekov 72% Claude: Kyoji Horiguchi 28% 72% 28% GPT GPT: Tagir Ulanbekov 33% GPT: Kyoji Horiguchi 67% 33% 67% Elo Elo: Tagir Ulanbekov 44% Elo: Kyoji Horiguchi 56% 44% 56%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Tagir UlanbekovKyoji Horiguchi
Strikes landed / min Tagir Ulanbekov Strikes landed / min: 3.22 3.22 Kyoji Horiguchi Strikes landed / min: 3.60 3.60 Strikes absorbed / min Tagir Ulanbekov Strikes absorbed / min: 3.30 3.30 Kyoji Horiguchi Strikes absorbed / min: 2.45 2.45 Striking accuracy Tagir Ulanbekov Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Kyoji Horiguchi Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Striking defense Tagir Ulanbekov Striking defense: 51% 51% Kyoji Horiguchi Striking defense: 62% 62% Takedowns / 15 min Tagir Ulanbekov Takedowns / 15 min: 3.71 3.71 Kyoji Horiguchi Takedowns / 15 min: 2.00 2.00 Takedown defense Tagir Ulanbekov Takedown defense: 61% 61% Kyoji Horiguchi Takedown defense: 55% 55% Sub attempts / 15 min Tagir Ulanbekov Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.1 2.1 Kyoji Horiguchi Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 55% 55% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 14% 14% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 76% 76%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Tagir Ulanbekov by Submission, 72% confidence

Ulanbekov's grappling-heavy approach (3.71 TDAvg, 2.1 SubAvg) presents major problems for Horiguchi, who hasn't competed in UFC since 2016. The 8-year layoff is massive at flyweight. Ulanbekov's recent submission victories show his ground game is sharp, while Horiguchi's 55% TDD and zero submission average indicate vulnerability on the mat. The southpaw vs orthodox dynamic favors Ulanbekov's entries.

GPT
Kyoji Horiguchi by Decision, 67% confidence

Kyoji Horiguchi holds a significant striking differential (+1.15 vs -0.08), better striking defense (62% vs 51%), and a 4-inch reach advantage. While Ulanbekov offers higher submission threat (2.1 submissions per fight) and more takedown volume, Horiguchi's superior footwork, speed, and proven ability to handle grapplers at a high level (as shown in his Bellator and RIZIN career) make him the favorite to outpoint Ulanbekov over three rounds. Ulanbekov's path is grappling-heavy, but Horiguchi's historically strong scrambling and defensive discipline limit finishing threats.