Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is a fascinating clash between a veteran middleweight dropping to welterweight and an undefeated prospect. Hermansson's significant weight cut from 185 to 170 is extremely concerning - that's a 15-pound drop for a 36-year-old fighter. Orolbai's elite wrestling (7.44 takedowns per fight at 44% accuracy) will be the deciding factor. While Hermansson has better striking volume (5.09 vs 3.02 SLPM), Orolbai's wrestling-heavy approach and 30-pound youth advantage will wear down the weight-depleted veteran. Orolbai has shown he can go the distance, and his grappling control will neutralize Hermansson's experience edge.