Back
WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. HookerWelterweightMain card
Jack
Hermansson
11-7UFC
VS
Myktybek
Orolbai
3-0UFC
Final: Myktybek Orolbai by KO/TKO Punch
Who wins
Hermansson winsevenOrolbai wins
Claude 72% Orolbai
Elo 52% Orolbai
Claude
72%
Orolbai
Elo
52%
Orolbai
1551 vs 1568
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'1"
Height
5'10"
77"
Reach
74"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5.09
Landed / min
2.78
3.69
Absorbed / minlower better
2.70
44%
Strike accuracy
50%
56%
Strike defense
51%
1.53
Takedowns / 15
8.77
30%
TD accuracy
59%
80%
TD defense
40%
0.4
Subs / 15
0.5
How it ends
60%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 15%Submission 25%Decision 60%
Formnewest first
Jack Hermansson147 days out
L
Gregory Rodrigues
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-06-28
W
Joe Pyfer
U-DEC · 2024-02-10
L
Roman Dolidze
KO/TKO · 2022-12-03
W
Chris Curtis
U-DEC · 2022-07-23
L
Sean Strickland
S-DEC · 2022-02-05
Myktybek Orolbai154 days out
W
Tofiq Musayev
SUB Kimura · 2025-06-21
W
Elves Brener
U-DEC · 2023-12-09
W
Uros Medic
SUB · 2023-11-18
Why
Claude
Myktybek Orolbai
72% · Decision
- Massive weight cut concern - Hermansson dropping from 185 to 170 at age 36
- Orolbai's wrestling dominance - 7.44 takedowns per fight vs Hermansson's 80% TDD
- 10-year age gap favoring Orolbai (26 vs 36) in a grueling grappling match
- Orolbai's perfect 3-0 UFC record with high-level grappling control
Write-up
This is a fascinating clash between a veteran middleweight dropping to welterweight and an undefeated prospect. Hermansson's significant weight cut from 185 to 170 is extremely concerning - that's a 15-pound drop for a 36-year-old fighter. Orolbai's elite wrestling (7.44 takedowns per fight at 44% accuracy) will be the deciding factor. While Hermansson has better striking volume (5.09 vs 3.02 SLPM), Orolbai's wrestling-heavy approach and 30-pound youth advantage will wear down the weight-depleted veteran. Orolbai has shown he can go the distance, and his grappling control will neutralize Hermansson's experience edge.