Ismail Naurdiev vs Ryan Loder

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Loder's striking metrics are exceptional - 80% accuracy with 6.16 strikes landed per minute and a +6.01 differential. His recent KO victories demonstrate finishing power at middleweight. Naurdiev's 52% accuracy and lower volume (3.17 SLPM) combined with just 68% striking defense makes him vulnerable to Loder's precise, high-volume attack. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup favors Loder's power shots. Naurdiev hasn't competed since 2020 and was primarily a welterweight, suggesting ring rust and size disadvantages. Loder's 100% takedown defense neutralizes Naurdiev's wrestling threat.

Loder's statistical profile is dominant across key areas: he lands strikes at nearly double the rate of Naurdiev with vastly higher accuracy (80% vs 52%), absorbs almost no damage (SApM 0.15 vs 1.3), and boasts a perfect 100% takedown defense. Critically, his submission average (2.2 per fight) far exceeds Naurdiev's (0.2), and Naurdiev has shown only average takedown defense (70%). Loder's physical advantages and southpaw stance further complicate the matchup for Naurdiev, who has not demonstrated equivalent finishing ability or offensive output.