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Bogdan Grad vs Luke Riley

Featherweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

FINAL: Luke Riley by KO/TKO Punches
Bogdan Grad
Bogdan Grad
Age 30 · Elo 1479*
LW
154 days since last fight
vs
Luke Riley
Luke Riley
Age 26 · Elo 1524*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Bogdan GradLuke Riley
Claude Claude: Bogdan Grad 58% Claude: Luke Riley 42% 58% 42% GPT GPT: Bogdan Grad 70% GPT: Luke Riley 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: Bogdan Grad 44% Elo: Luke Riley 56% 44% 56%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Bogdan GradLuke Riley
Strikes landed / min Bogdan Grad Strikes landed / min: 4.16 4.16 Luke Riley Strikes landed / min: 0.00 0.00 Strikes absorbed / min Bogdan Grad Strikes absorbed / min: 5.02 5.02 Luke Riley Strikes absorbed / min: 0.00 0.00 Striking accuracy Bogdan Grad Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Luke Riley Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Striking defense Bogdan Grad Striking defense: 49% 49% Luke Riley Striking defense: 0% 0% Takedowns / 15 min Bogdan Grad Takedowns / 15 min: 4.57 4.57 Luke Riley Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Takedown defense Bogdan Grad Takedown defense: 75% 75% Luke Riley Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Bogdan Grad Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5 Luke Riley Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 20% 20% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Bogdan Grad by Decision, 58% confidence

Limited data on Riley makes this difficult, but Grad's 15-3 record and UFC experience provide the edge. Grad's 6.35 SLPM output and 2.75 TDAvg suggest a well-rounded approach. Riley being undefeated (11-0) is impressive but untested at UFC level. Grad's poor defensive metrics (49% StrDef, 0% TDD) are concerning, but Riley has zero UFC stats to analyze. Experience typically wins in these scenarios.

GPT
Bogdan Grad by Decision, 70% confidence

Bogdan Grad has significant statistical advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and grappling activity, while Luke Riley's UFC-level data is unavailable. Grad's high output (6.35 SLPM) and aggressive takedown attempts (2.75 per fight) suggest he can dictate the pace. However, Grad's poor defensive metrics (10.25 SApM, 0% TD defense) raise some risk, but Riley's unknowns limit confidence in an early finish.