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UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. HookerWelterweightMain card
Belal Muhammad
Belal
Muhammad
15-5UFC
37 yrsElo 1643
VS
Ian Machado GarryWINNER
Ian Machado
Garry
9-1UFC
28 yrsElo 1639
Final: Ian Machado Garry by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
68%
Muhammad
Elo
51%
Muhammad
1643 vs 1639
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'11" Height 6'3"
72" Reach 74"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
4.39 Landed / min 4.78
3.48 Absorbed / minlower better 2.86
43% Strike accuracy 54%
57% Strike defense 52%
2.28 Takedowns / 15 0.92
39% TD accuracy 31%
89% TD defense 80%
0.2 Subs / 15 0.4
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 10%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 75%
75%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 10%Submission 15%Decision 75%
Formnewest first
Belal Muhammad196 days out
L
Jack Della Maddalena
U-DEC · 2025-05-10
W
Leon Edwards
U-DEC · 2024-02-17
W
Gilbert Burns
U-DEC · 2023-05-06
W
Sean Brady
KO/TKO · 2022-10-22
W
Vicente Luque
U-DEC · 2022-04-16
Ian Machado Garry210 days out
W
Carlos Prates
U-DEC · 2025-04-26
L
Shavkat Rakhmonov
U-DEC · 2024-12-07
W
Geoff Neal
S-DEC · 2024-02-17
W
Michael Page
U-DEC · 2024-01-27
W
Neil Magny
U-DEC · 2023-08-19
Why
Claude
Belal Muhammad
68% · Decision
  • Wrestling control: Muhammad's 89% TDD and 2.28 takedowns vs Garry's untested grappling at elite level
  • Experience gap: Muhammad has 21 UFC fights vs Garry's limited high-level experience
  • Cardio warfare: Muhammad's relentless pace vs Garry's measured striking approach
  • Common opponent: Muhammad lost to Neal via decision, Garry won split - shows competitive parity
Write-up

Muhammad's elite takedown defense (89%) and relentless pressure wrestling (2.28 takedowns per fight) present significant problems for Garry's striking-heavy approach. While Garry has better striking metrics (55% accuracy vs 43%, 5.5 SLPM vs 4.39), Muhammad's experience edge and proven ability to neutralize strikers through clinch control and cage wrestling will be decisive. Garry's 69% takedown defense is solid but untested against elite wrestlers. Muhammad's 5-fight win streak includes victories over elite competition, while Garry remains unproven at championship level. The 4-inch height disadvantage for Muhammad is mitigated by his pressure style and durability.