Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Muhammad's elite takedown defense (89%) and relentless pressure wrestling (2.28 takedowns per fight) present significant problems for Garry's striking-heavy approach. While Garry has better striking metrics (55% accuracy vs 43%, 5.5 SLPM vs 4.39), Muhammad's experience edge and proven ability to neutralize strikers through clinch control and cage wrestling will be decisive. Garry's 69% takedown defense is solid but untested against elite wrestlers. Muhammad's 5-fight win streak includes victories over elite competition, while Garry remains unproven at championship level. The 4-inch height disadvantage for Muhammad is mitigated by his pressure style and durability.