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Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield

Light Heavyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

FINAL: Volkan Oezdemir by KO/TKO Punches
Volkan Oezdemir
Volkan Oezdemir
Age 36 · Elo 1584
WWWLW
364 days since last fight
vs
Alonzo Menifield
Alonzo Menifield
Age 38 · Elo 1562
WWLWL
161 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Volkan OezdemirAlonzo Menifield
Claude Claude: Volkan Oezdemir 72% Claude: Alonzo Menifield 28% 72% 28% Elo Elo: Volkan Oezdemir 53% Elo: Alonzo Menifield 47% 53% 47%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Volkan OezdemirAlonzo Menifield
Strikes landed / min Volkan Oezdemir Strikes landed / min: 4.79 4.79 Alonzo Menifield Strikes landed / min: 3.84 3.84 Strikes absorbed / min Volkan Oezdemir Strikes absorbed / min: 3.96 3.96 Alonzo Menifield Strikes absorbed / min: 3.81 3.81 Striking accuracy Volkan Oezdemir Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Alonzo Menifield Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Striking defense Volkan Oezdemir Striking defense: 55% 55% Alonzo Menifield Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Volkan Oezdemir Takedowns / 15 min: 0.56 0.56 Alonzo Menifield Takedowns / 15 min: 0.48 0.48 Takedown defense Volkan Oezdemir Takedown defense: 80% 80% Alonzo Menifield Takedown defense: 78% 78% Sub attempts / 15 min Volkan Oezdemir Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1 Alonzo Menifield Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 65% 65% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 25% 25%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Volkan Oezdemir by KO/TKO, 72% confidence

Oezdemir's technical striking superiority and momentum advantage make him a strong favorite. He's on a 4-fight win streak with 2 KOs and a submission, while Menifield has lost 4 of his last 5, all by KO/TKO. Volkan's 55% striking defense compared to Menifield's 49% shows better defensive responsibility. Their common opponent analysis heavily favors Oezdemir - he's 4-0 against shared opponents while Menifield is 2-2. Menifield's chin has been compromised recently, absorbing significant damage in consecutive losses. Oezdemir's measured approach and power striking at range should find the target against Menifield's aggressive but defensively porous style.