Alex Perez vs Asu Almabayev

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Almabayev's perfect 5-0 UFC record with dominant wrestling (5.08 takedowns per fight at 50% accuracy) presents a nightmare matchup for Perez. While Perez has superior striking volume (4.19 vs 2.11 SLPM), Almabayev's 1.7 submissions per fight and relentless grappling pressure will likely dictate the fight. Perez's recent 1-4 record including multiple KO losses suggests declining durability, while Almabayev is peaking with 5 straight unanimous decisions.

Almabayev's superior grappling volume and submission threat should allow him to control most positions. While Perez is the more experienced UFC fighter with better striking output and takedown defense, Almabayev's relentless wrestling pace (5.08 TDs per fight, 1.7 subs per fight) and high striking accuracy (56%) give him the edge over three rounds. Perez's takedown defense (77%) will slow Almabayev, but not enough to keep the fight standing for long stretches.