Zach Reese vs Michel Pereira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Pereira's experience and recent form heavily favor him despite coming off two losses. His 4.46 SLPM output and 52% striking defense significantly outclass Reese's 3.93 SLPM with 0% recorded defense. Reese's lone UFC fight ended in a KO loss, while Pereira has shown finishing ability with 3 submission wins in his last 5 fights. The 4-inch reach disadvantage for Pereira is offset by his superior movement and 76% takedown defense against Reese's non-existent takedown game. Pereira's switch to middleweight has been successful outside his title shot losses.

Pereira brings a large sample of UFC-level experience, more balanced offense, and proven durability against higher-tier competition, while Reese's UFC stats are extremely limited and show major defensive red flags (very high SApM, 0% listed TD defense, and reliance on opportunistic submissions). Pereira's 4.46 SLpM with positive differential, 52% striking defense, and 52% takedown accuracy suggest he can dictate where the fight takes place. His size, athleticism, and improved pacing at middleweight should allow him to pressure Reese, exploit defensive holes on the feet, and avoid extended grappling exchanges where Reese is most dangerous. Over three rounds, the most likely scenario is Pereira hurting Reese on the feet and finishing with strikes once Reese's defensive reactions and gas tank start to fade.