Jordan Leavitt vs Yadier del Valle

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Del Valle's massive striking volume advantage (7.49 vs 2.55 SLPM) and superior defensive metrics give him the edge in this southpaw mirror match. While both are submission threats, del Valle's 66% takedown defense should neutralize Leavitt's wrestling (25% accuracy). Del Valle lands nearly 5 more strikes per minute with better accuracy (67% vs 61%). Leavitt's move to featherweight may impact his strength advantage.

Del Valle's metrics point to a much higher offensive ceiling: he triples Leavitt's output (7.49 vs 2.55 SLpM) with better accuracy (67% vs 61%) while still holding a positive defensive edge in wrestling (66% TD defense vs Leavitt's 25% TD accuracy). Both are submission-oriented, but Del Valle attempts more takedowns and submissions per fight and is significantly more efficient, suggesting he can neutralize Leavitt's grappling while outworking him on the feet. Leavitt's path is largely submission-based, but Del Valle's volume, accuracy, and superior takedown metrics make a sustained, scorecard-driven win more likely than a finish.