Phil Rowe vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Lebosnoyani's extraordinary striking output (9.71 SLPM) and accuracy (78%) presents a nightmare matchup for Rowe, who has lost 3 straight and only lands at 49% accuracy. The 29% striking accuracy differential is massive. While Rowe has an 8-inch reach advantage, his defensive striking (55% defense) won't hold up against Lebosnoyani's volume and precision. The young fighter's switch stance will further complicate Rowe's defensive reads.

Lebosnoyani's early UFC stats indicate extremely high pace and accuracy (9.7 SLpM at 78% with +4.4 differential) combined with better strike defense (64% vs Rowe's 55%). Rowe has the height/reach edge and more UFC experience, but his negative striking differential (-0.69), higher damage intake (4.34 SApM), and only moderate wrestling (0.7 TD per fight at 36% with 56% TD defense) suggest he'll struggle to slow the volume or consistently exploit grappling. Unless Lebosnoyani's numbers are entirely inflated by a tiny sample, his output and efficiency should carry rounds on the cards, with Rowe's durability and size making a finish less likely over three.