Jacobe Smith vs Josiah Harrell

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Smith shows significant statistical advantages despite limited UFC data. His 76% striking accuracy and elite 87% takedown accuracy suggest a well-rounded skill set. With 13.26 takedowns per fight average, he'll likely dominate the grappling exchanges against Harrell who has no recorded stats. Smith's southpaw stance mirrors Harrell's, neutralizing any stance advantage. The 4-inch reach advantage combined with superior volume (6.95 SLPM vs 0) indicates Smith will control distance and pace.

Smith's early UFC stats show extreme wrestling volume and efficiency (13+ TDs per 15 with 87% accuracy and very high striking accuracy), indicating a control-heavy, takedown-centric approach. Harrell has no recorded UFC stats and historically relies more on aggression and scrambling than structured takedown defense, which is a poor matchup against a pressure wrestler who chains attempts and minimizes damage absorbed. Over three rounds, Smith is statistically more likely to rack up takedowns and top control rather than chase risky finishes, leading to a grindy decision.