Geoff Neal vs Uros Medic

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Medic's superior striking metrics (60% accuracy vs Neal's 51%, better striking differential at +2.33 vs Neal's -0.39) combined with his recent finishing streak gives him the edge. Neal has lost 3 of his last 5, including TKO losses to Carlos Prates and submission to Rakhmonov, showing vulnerability to finishers. Medic's 4-1 record with 4 TKO finishes in his last 5 demonstrates elite finishing ability. The southpaw mirror match slightly favors Medic who has better offensive output (5.51 SLPM vs 5.05) and has shown ability to capitalize on openings against orthodox-converted southpaws.

Neal has faced and finished far higher-caliber opposition at welterweight, carries proven one-shot power late into fights, and owns a major defensive edge in takedown defense that should keep this almost entirely standing. Medic's offensive metrics are inflated against lower-level, smaller opponents and he has shown defensive lapses, porous takedown defense, and cardio questions when pressured and extended. Over three rounds, Neal's tighter southpaw boxing, better shot selection, and durability at true welterweight favor him to eventually find a clean counter and score a late stoppage, with Medic's best chance coming in early high-variance striking exchanges.