Dan Ige vs Melquizael Costa

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Costa's 5-fight winning streak with 2 recent submissions showcases his evolving ground game against Ige's 2-3 recent record. Costa's superior grappling metrics (2.5 takedowns per fight, 1.1 submissions per fight) create constant threats that Ige's 58% takedown defense may struggle with. While Ige has veteran experience, Costa's 3-inch height advantage and southpaw stance create awkward angles. Costa's recent submission wins over Fili and Nuerdanbieke demonstrate his ability to finish name opponents. Ige's tendency to engage in wars plays into Costa's hands as fatigue opens submission opportunities.

Ige's proven durability and five-round experience against elite featherweights, combined with slightly better striking efficiency and defensive metrics, should allow him to edge the stand-up over three rounds. Costa's higher takedown and submission output is notable, but his weaker takedown defense and less tested resume at this level suggest he'll struggle to consistently control Ige or finish him. Ige's composure, counter-punching, and ability to fight off his back foot should neutralize much of Costa's offense and win him close but clear rounds on volume and cleaner shots.