Sean Strickland vs Anthony Hernandez

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Hernandez's elite grappling pressure (6.64 takedowns per fight vs Strickland's 0.78) and superior submission threat (2.3 subs per fight) present major problems for Strickland's primarily striking-based approach. While Strickland has better striking defense (61% vs 46%), Hernandez's relentless pace and 5-fight winning streak with 4 finishes shows he's peaking. Strickland's 77% takedown defense is solid but will be tested by Hernandez's volume shooting. The key will be Hernandez's ability to weather early striking exchanges and drag Strickland into deep waters where his cardio and grappling dominance can take over.

Hernandez's relentless wrestling (6.64 TD avg, high sub rate) is dangerous, but Strickland's elite takedown defense (77%), cardio, and pace-heavy jab/pressure striking should allow him to stuff or quickly scramble from many attempts and pile up damage over five rounds. Strickland's superior defensive striking (61% vs 46%), higher output (6.01 SLpM), and proven success in long main events suggest he wins minutes more consistently, while Hernandez will have moments early but likely fades under Strickland's attritional style.