Montel Jackson vs Raoni Barcelos

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Jackson's superior defensive metrics (1.42 SApM vs 4.79, 63% vs 61% striking defense) and elite efficiency (53% striking accuracy, 71% TD accuracy) match up well against Barcelos' higher but more hittable volume. Barcelos' 85% takedown defense likely limits Jackson's top control and submission threats, shifting this toward a largely striking-based fight where Jackson's 8-inch reach edge, southpaw stance, and much better strike differential (+1.97 vs +0.43) favor him over three rounds. Barcelos' offensive grappling and finishing instincts keep him live, but durability concerns and defensive leakage against a long, accurate southpaw make a Jackson decision the most probable outcome.