Griffin has a massive experience edge at the UFC level, far higher output, significantly better defensive metrics, and a proven wrestling game. Valenzuela's numbers (low volume, negative striking differential, 0% recorded defense, no takedown offense or defense shown) suggest limited UFC sample and clear vulnerabilities that a well-rounded veteran like Griffin can exploit. However, Griffin's historical tendency to go to decisions and manage risk rather than overextend makes a points win more likely than a finish.