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UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. ZalalHeavyweightPrelims
Marcus Buchecha
Marcus
Buchecha
36 yrsElo 1481*UFC debut
VS
Ryan SpannWINNER
Ryan
Spann
9-5UFC
34 yrsElo 1561
Final: Ryan Spann by KO/TKO Punch
Who wins
GPT
72%
Spann
Elo
61%
Spann
1481 vs 1561
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'2" Height 6'5"
77" Reach 79"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
1.60 Landed / min 3.11
2.73 Absorbed / minlower better 3.92
40% Strike accuracy 39%
52% Strike defense 43%
1.00 Takedowns / 15 1.21
9% TD accuracy 34%
0% TD defense 59%
n/a Subs / 15 1.7
Small sample: Marcus Buchecha, 0 UFC fights.
How it ends
GPT: KO/TKO 47%GPT: Submission 20%GPT: Decision 33%
47%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 47%Submission 20%Decision 33%
Formnewest first
Marcus Buchecha
No UFC fights
Ryan Spann280 days out
W
Lukasz Brzeski
SUB Guillotine Choke · 2025-07-19
L
Bogdan Guskov
KO/TKO · 2024-04-27
W
Ovince Saint Preux
SUB · 2024-04-13
L
Anthony Smith
S-DEC · 2023-08-26
L
Nikita Krylov
SUB · 2023-03-11
Why
GPT
Ryan Spann
72% · KO/TKO
  • Experience and proven UFC finishing ability strongly favor Spann, who has a significantly higher win rate and far more high-level cage time.
  • Buchecha's current UFC stats show very low offensive volume, extremely low takedown accuracy, and 0% takedown defense, making him vulnerable in extended MMA exchanges.
  • Spann's combination of 3.3 SLpM, solid 40% accuracy, 1.32 takedowns per fight, and 1.7 submissions per fight indicates multiple finishing paths against a still-raw MMA profile in Buchecha.
Write-up

Spann brings far greater UFC experience, a much higher striking output, and proven finishing ability both on the feet and via submissions. Buchecha's UFC metrics show low offensive volume, poor takedown success (9%), and 0% takedown defense, which is a major red flag against a long, opportunistic finisher like Spann. Unless Buchecha can consistently force advantageous grappling exchanges and translate his BJJ credentials into dominant top control, Spann's pace, power, and ability to hurt or club-and-sub opponents should take over, with Buchecha's defensive liabilities making an early or mid-fight stoppage more likely than a drawn-out decision.