Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Polastri has a massive striking edge in both volume and accuracy, nearly doubling Alencar's output while landing at 54% and defending at 58%. Alencar's negative strike differential and high damage intake (4.8 absorbed per minute) against a far more efficient and busier striker is a red flag over three rounds. While Alencar is an elite grappler by background, her UFC takedown numbers (13% accuracy, 2 TDs per fight, 50% TD defense) indicate difficulty translating that game to MMA. In contrast, Polastri's 80% takedown accuracy and 0.6 subs per fight suggest she can both dictate where the grappling happens and threaten from top if it goes there. Given Polastri's output, accuracy, and superior MMA grappling metrics, she is favored to win a high-volume decision, with some chance of a late finish if Alencar fades under pressure.