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Jackson McVey vs Sedriques Dumas

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

FINAL: Jackson McVey by SUB D'Arce Choke
Jackson McVey
Jackson McVey
Age 27 · Elo 1507*
LL
167 days since last fight
vs
Sedriques Dumas
Sedriques Dumas
Age 30 · Elo 1460
LLLWW
175 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Jackson McVeySedriques Dumas
GPT GPT: Jackson McVey 31% GPT: Sedriques Dumas 69% 31% 69% Elo Elo: Jackson McVey 57% Elo: Sedriques Dumas 43% 57% 43%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Jackson McVeySedriques Dumas
Strikes landed / min Jackson McVey Strikes landed / min: 6.51 6.51 Sedriques Dumas Strikes landed / min: 2.15 2.15 Strikes absorbed / min Jackson McVey Strikes absorbed / min: 3.37 3.37 Sedriques Dumas Strikes absorbed / min: 2.03 2.03 Striking accuracy Jackson McVey Striking accuracy: 69% 69% Sedriques Dumas Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Striking defense Jackson McVey Striking defense: 23% 23% Sedriques Dumas Striking defense: 58% 58% Takedowns / 15 min Jackson McVey Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Sedriques Dumas Takedowns / 15 min: 1.31 1.31 Takedown defense Jackson McVey Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sedriques Dumas Takedown defense: 40% 40% Sub attempts / 15 min Jackson McVey Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.2 1.2 Sedriques Dumas Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 27% 27% GPT: Submission 13% 13% GPT: Decision 60% 60%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Sedriques Dumas by Decision, 69% confidence

Dumas has established UFC-level experience, measured but efficient striking metrics, and functional wrestling against a debuting McVey with no available UFC stats. McVey is an unknown quantity at this level, while Dumas has shown improving composure, better shot selection, and the ability to mix in takedowns, which should allow him to control the tempo and bank rounds even if he cannot consistently finish.