Francis Marshall vs Lucas Brennan

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Marshall's UFC stats show a wrestle-boxing approach with moderate takedown volume (2.68 TDs per fight at 41% accuracy) but only average defensive metrics (53% striking defense, 50% TD defense) and a negative striking differential (-0.47). Brennan, coming in as a highly credentialed submission grappler from Bellator, is most dangerous exactly where Marshall tends to operate-shooting and grappling-heavy sequences. Marshall's willingness to wrestle and his defensive lapses create high-percentage back-take and front-headlock opportunities for Brennan, who historically excels at punishing shots with chokes and controlling scrambles. Over 3 rounds, Marshall's volume and cardio give him some decision equity, but the most likely script is Marshall initiating wrestling, Brennan creating scrambles, taking the back, and finishing a choke.