Jafel Filho vs Cody Durden

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Durden's wrestling volume and 4.36 TDs per 15 minutes mean he will proactively engage the grappling, which plays directly into Filho's strongest win condition: an aggressive submission game (2.6 subs per 15) and opportunistic front-chokes/back-takes. Durden's historically strong top control can win minutes, but his submission defense has been penetrable against high-level grapplers, and Filho is significantly more dangerous off his back than Durden is on his. On the feet Durden is slightly busier and more accurate, but not enough of a knockout threat to deter Filho from exchanging and creating scrambles. Over three rounds, the repeated wrestling entries and scrambles favor Filho finding a neck or back at some point, especially as Durden's pace taxes his gas tank.