Back
WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. ZalalFeatherweightMain card
Aljamain
Sterling
17-5UFC
VS
Youssef
Zalal
8-4UFC
Final: Aljamain Sterling by U-DEC
Who wins
Sterling winsevenZalal wins
Elo 67% Sterling
GPT 68% Sterling
GPT
68%
Sterling
Elo
67%
Sterling
1674 vs 1551
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'7"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
4.61
Landed / min
2.87
2.30
Absorbed / minlower better
1.73
52%
Strike accuracy
49%
58%
Strike defense
66%
2.31
Takedowns / 15
2.33
27%
TD accuracy
34%
45%
TD defense
60%
0.7
Subs / 15
1.4
How it ends
65%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 18%Submission 17%Decision 65%
Formnewest first
Aljamain Sterling245 days out
W
Brian Ortega
U-DEC · 2025-08-23
L
Movsar Evloev
U-DEC · 2024-12-07
W
Calvin Kattar
U-DEC · 2024-04-13
L
Sean O'Malley
KO/TKO · 2023-08-19
W
Henry Cejudo
S-DEC · 2023-05-06
Youssef Zalal203 days out
W
Josh Emmett
SUB Armbar · 2025-10-04
W
Calvin Kattar
U-DEC · 2025-02-15
L
win
· 2024-11-02
W
Billy Quarantillo
SUB · 2024-03-23
W
Jarno Errens
SUB · 2024-03-02
Why
GPT
Aljamain Sterling
68% · Decision
- Sterling's higher SLpM (4.61 vs 2.87) and better striking accuracy (52% vs 49%) favor him in round-by-round scoring.
- Zalal's stronger defensive profile (66% striking defense, 60% TD defense) suggests durability and survivability, pointing the matchup toward a decision rather than a finish.
- Both average similar takedown volume, but Sterling's pace and ability to blend striking and wrestling historically allow him to bank control time and cage optics even without dominant top control.
Write-up
Sterling's higher output and striking accuracy, combined with his proven ability to win minutes with volume and clinch/wrestling pressure, should edge the scorecards against Zalal's more measured, defensively sound style. Zalal's superior defensive metrics and submission rate make a finish against him less likely, but he is unlikely to consistently outwork or control Sterling over three to five rounds.