Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Aljamain Sterling vs Youssef Zalal

Featherweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

FINAL: Aljamain Sterling by U-DEC
Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling
Age 36 · Elo 1674
WLWLW
245 days since last fight
vs
Youssef Zalal
Youssef Zalal
Age 29 · Elo 1551
WWLWW
203 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Aljamain SterlingYoussef Zalal
GPT GPT: Aljamain Sterling 68% GPT: Youssef Zalal 32% 68% 32% Elo Elo: Aljamain Sterling 67% Elo: Youssef Zalal 33% 67% 33%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Aljamain SterlingYoussef Zalal
Strikes landed / min Aljamain Sterling Strikes landed / min: 4.61 4.61 Youssef Zalal Strikes landed / min: 2.87 2.87 Strikes absorbed / min Aljamain Sterling Strikes absorbed / min: 2.30 2.30 Youssef Zalal Strikes absorbed / min: 1.73 1.73 Striking accuracy Aljamain Sterling Striking accuracy: 52% 52% Youssef Zalal Striking accuracy: 49% 49% Striking defense Aljamain Sterling Striking defense: 58% 58% Youssef Zalal Striking defense: 66% 66% Takedowns / 15 min Aljamain Sterling Takedowns / 15 min: 2.31 2.31 Youssef Zalal Takedowns / 15 min: 2.33 2.33 Takedown defense Aljamain Sterling Takedown defense: 45% 45% Youssef Zalal Takedown defense: 60% 60% Sub attempts / 15 min Aljamain Sterling Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7 Youssef Zalal Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.4 1.4

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 17% 17% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Aljamain Sterling by Decision, 68% confidence

Sterling's higher output and striking accuracy, combined with his proven ability to win minutes with volume and clinch/wrestling pressure, should edge the scorecards against Zalal's more measured, defensively sound style. Zalal's superior defensive metrics and submission rate make a finish against him less likely, but he is unlikely to consistently outwork or control Sterling over three to five rounds.