Back
WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. ZalalLightweightMain card
Rafa
Garcia
6-4UFC
VS
Alexander
Hernandez
10-7UFC
Final: Rafa Garcia by U-DEC
Who wins
Garcia winsevenHernandez wins
Elo 55% Hernandez
GPT 63% Garcia
GPT
63%
Garcia
Elo
55%
Hernandez
1533 vs 1565
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'7"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
3.97
Landed / min
4.38
4.36
Absorbed / minlower better
4.62
42%
Strike accuracy
40%
61%
Strike defense
57%
3.38
Takedowns / 15
1.24
44%
TD accuracy
36%
75%
TD defense
71%
0.3
Subs / 15
0.1
How it ends
68%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 18%Submission 14%Decision 68%
Formnewest first
Rafa Garcia224 days out
W
Jared Gordon
KO/TKO Elbows · 2025-09-13
W
Vinc Pichel
U-DEC · 2025-03-29
L
Grant Dawson
KO/TKO · 2024-04-27
W
Clay Guida
U-DEC · 2023-04-15
W
Maheshate
U-DEC · 2022-12-17
Alexander Hernandez224 days out
W
Diego Ferreira
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-09-13
W
Chase Hooper
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-08-16
W
Kurt Holobaugh
U-DEC · 2025-03-15
W
Austin Hubbard
S-DEC · 2024-04-13
L
Damon Jackson
S-DEC · 2024-04-06
Why
GPT
Rafa Garcia
63% · Decision
- Grappling volume edge: Garcia averages 3.38 TDs per 15 minutes vs. Hernandez's 1.24, giving him a clear path to control and score.
- Defensive metrics: Garcia's 61% striking defense and 75% TD defense compare favorably to Hernandez's 57% striking defense and 71% TD defense, suggesting Garcia is slightly harder to hit and hold down.
- Cardio and durability: Garcia has historically held up well in extended, grinding fights, while Hernandez has shown a pattern of fast starts followed by drop-offs in pace and effectiveness, especially under pressure.
Write-up
Garcia's higher takedown volume, superior takedown defense, and more disciplined defensive striking profile position him to neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, bank control time, and edge rounds in a competitive but grindy fight. Hernandez's tendency to slow and his negative striking differential against pressure wrestlers align poorly with Garcia's durable, pressure-heavy style.