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Davey Grant vs Adrian Luna Martinetti

Bantamweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

FINAL: Davey Grant by U-DEC
Davey Grant
Davey Grant
Age 40 · Elo 1517
LWLWW
189 days since last fight
vs
Adrian Luna Martinetti
Adrian Luna Martinetti
Age 30 · Elo 1480*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Davey GrantAdrian Luna Martinetti
GPT GPT: Davey Grant 32% GPT: Adrian Luna Martinetti 68% 32% 68% Elo Elo: Davey Grant 55% Elo: Adrian Luna Martinetti 45% 55% 45%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Davey GrantAdrian Luna Martinetti
Strikes landed / min Davey Grant Strikes landed / min: 4.77 4.77 Adrian Luna Martinetti Strikes landed / min: 11.00 11.00 Strikes absorbed / min Davey Grant Strikes absorbed / min: 3.82 3.82 Adrian Luna Martinetti Strikes absorbed / min: 7.80 7.80 Striking accuracy Davey Grant Striking accuracy: 42% 42% Adrian Luna Martinetti Striking accuracy: 65% 65% Striking defense Davey Grant Striking defense: 55% 55% Adrian Luna Martinetti Striking defense: 48% 48% Takedowns / 15 min Davey Grant Takedowns / 15 min: 1.26 1.26 Adrian Luna Martinetti Takedowns / 15 min: 3.00 3.00 Takedown defense Davey Grant Takedown defense: 61% 61% Adrian Luna Martinetti Takedown defense: 100% 100% Sub attempts / 15 min Davey Grant Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2 Adrian Luna Martinetti Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 32% 32% GPT: Submission 8% 8% GPT: Decision 60% 60%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Adrian Luna Martinetti by Decision, 68% confidence

Luna Martinetti's pace and efficiency (11 SLpM at 65% with a +3.2 differential) plus higher takedown output should allow him to outwork the older, more hittable Grant over three rounds. Grant's power and veteran craft make him live for a knockdown or late finish, but Luna's volume, mixed grappling threats, and 100% TD defense profile suggest he controls where the fight takes place and wins minutes more consistently.