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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoHeavyweightMain card
Sergei PavlovichWINNER
Sergei
Pavlovich
7-3UFC
34 yrsElo 1611
VS
Tallison Teixeira
Tallison
Teixeira
2-1UFC
26 yrsElo 1507*
Final: Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO Punch
Who wins
GPT
72%
Pavlovich
Elo
65%
Pavlovich
1611 vs 1507
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'3" Height 6'7"
84" Reach 83"
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
5.86 Landed / min 14.87
5.03 Absorbed / minlower better 9.74
44% Strike accuracy 54%
51% Strike defense 58%
0.00 Takedowns / 15 0.00
0% TD accuracy 0%
75% TD defense 0%
0.0 Subs / 15 0.0
How it ends
GPT: KO/TKO 68%GPT: Submission 2%GPT: Decision 30%
68%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 68%Submission 2%Decision 30%
Formnewest first
Sergei Pavlovich482 days out
W
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
U-DEC · 2025-02-01
L
Alexander Volkov
U-DEC · 2024-01-20
L
Tom Aspinall
KO/TKO · 2023-11-11
W
Curtis Blaydes
KO/TKO · 2023-04-22
W
Tai Tuivasa
KO/TKO · 2022-12-03
Tallison Teixeira118 days out
W
Tai Tuivasa
U-DEC · 2026-01-31
L
Derrick Lewis
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-07-12
W
Justin Tafa
KO/TKO Elbow · 2025-02-08
Why
GPT
Sergei Pavlovich
72% · KO/TKO
  • Pavlovich's established UFC heavyweight resume and proven KO power against elite opposition vs. Teixeira's unproven sample and level of competition
  • Teixeira's extremely high output (14.87 SLpM) paired with very high damage taken (9.74 SApM) indicates frequent trading and defensive openings tailor-made for Pavlovich's straight punches and counters
  • Lack of reliable grappling or control metrics on either side suggests a predominantly standing fight, favoring the more technically sound and battle-tested power puncher in Pavlovich
Write-up

Despite Teixeira's inflated offensive metrics over a tiny sample, Pavlovich is the proven UFC-level heavyweight with elite early power, better-tested durability, and superior strength of schedule. Teixeira's extremely high SLpM and SApM suggest an aggressive but very hittable style that is dangerous against a fast, long puncher like Pavlovich, who excels at punishing entries and exchanges in the pocket. With no demonstrated wrestling threat from either man and Teixeira showing 0% takedown defense, this projects as a high-variance but striker-vs-striker bout where Pavlovich's cleaner mechanics, experience against top-5 heavyweights, and one-shot power make an early KO/TKO the most likely outcome.