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WINNER
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoHeavyweightMain card
Sergei
Pavlovich
7-3UFC
VS
Tallison
Teixeira
2-1UFC
Final: Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO Punch
Who wins
Pavlovich winsevenTeixeira wins
Elo 65% Pavlovich
GPT 72% Pavlovich
GPT
72%
Pavlovich
Elo
65%
Pavlovich
1611 vs 1507
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'3"
Height
6'7"
84"
Reach
83"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5.86
Landed / min
14.87
5.03
Absorbed / minlower better
9.74
44%
Strike accuracy
54%
51%
Strike defense
58%
0.00
Takedowns / 15
0.00
0%
TD accuracy
0%
75%
TD defense
0%
0.0
Subs / 15
0.0
How it ends
68%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 68%Submission 2%Decision 30%
Formnewest first
Sergei Pavlovich482 days out
W
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
U-DEC · 2025-02-01
L
Alexander Volkov
U-DEC · 2024-01-20
L
Tom Aspinall
KO/TKO · 2023-11-11
W
Curtis Blaydes
KO/TKO · 2023-04-22
W
Tai Tuivasa
KO/TKO · 2022-12-03
Tallison Teixeira118 days out
W
Tai Tuivasa
U-DEC · 2026-01-31
L
Derrick Lewis
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-07-12
W
Justin Tafa
KO/TKO Elbow · 2025-02-08
Why
GPT
Sergei Pavlovich
72% · KO/TKO
- Pavlovich's established UFC heavyweight resume and proven KO power against elite opposition vs. Teixeira's unproven sample and level of competition
- Teixeira's extremely high output (14.87 SLpM) paired with very high damage taken (9.74 SApM) indicates frequent trading and defensive openings tailor-made for Pavlovich's straight punches and counters
- Lack of reliable grappling or control metrics on either side suggests a predominantly standing fight, favoring the more technically sound and battle-tested power puncher in Pavlovich
Write-up
Despite Teixeira's inflated offensive metrics over a tiny sample, Pavlovich is the proven UFC-level heavyweight with elite early power, better-tested durability, and superior strength of schedule. Teixeira's extremely high SLpM and SApM suggest an aggressive but very hittable style that is dangerous against a fast, long puncher like Pavlovich, who excels at punishing entries and exchanges in the pocket. With no demonstrated wrestling threat from either man and Teixeira showing 0% takedown defense, this projects as a high-variance but striker-vs-striker bout where Pavlovich's cleaner mechanics, experience against top-5 heavyweights, and one-shot power make an early KO/TKO the most likely outcome.