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UFC Fight Night: Song vs. FigueiredoFlyweightPrelims
Rei
Tsuruya
1-1UFC
VS
Jesus
Aguilar
4-3UFC
Who wins
Tsuruya winsevenAguilar wins
Elo 51% Tsuruya
GPT 72% Tsuruya
GPT
72%
Tsuruya
Elo
51%
Tsuruya
1523 vs 1519
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'6"
Height
5'4"
68"
Reach
62"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
2.40
Landed / min
1.46
1.91
Absorbed / minlower better
1.26
53%
Strike accuracy
51%
43%
Strike defense
58%
5.03
Takedowns / 15
1.75
37%
TD accuracy
33%
50%
TD defense
36%
2.0
Subs / 15
1.8
Small sample: Rei Tsuruya, 2 UFC fights.
How it ends
62%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 12%Submission 26%Decision 62%
Formnewest first
Rei Tsuruya447 days out
L
Joshua Van
U-DEC · 2025-03-08
W
Carlos Hernandez
U-DEC · 2024-01-27
Jesus Aguilar83 days out
L
Sumudaerji
U-DEC · 2026-03-07
W
Luis Gurule
U-DEC · 2025-09-13
L
Rafael Estevam
U-DEC · 2025-02-15
W
Stewart Nicoll
SUB · 2024-03-09
W
Mateus Mendonca
S-DEC · 2024-02-24
Why
GPT
Rei Tsuruya
72% · Decision
- Tsuruya's significantly higher wrestling volume and comparable accuracy give him the clearest, most repeatable path via takedowns and top control.
- Tsuruya's greater submission activity (2.5 vs 1.8 subs per fight) tilts the grappling initiative in his favor, even against another submission-minded fighter.
- Aguilar's superior striking defense (58 vs 46) and reach advantage should help him limit damage and avoid being finished, pointing toward a Tsuruya control-based decision rather than an early stoppage.
Write-up
Tsuruya's much higher takedown volume and efficiency (5.45 TDs per fight at 50% vs Aguilar's 1.75 at 33%) projects sustained top-time and control, while his superior offensive grappling output (2.5 subs per fight) forces Aguilar to defend rather than attack. Aguilar's better strike defense and 6-inch reach edge suggest he can avoid being dominated on the feet and survive scrambles, making a control-heavy decision for Tsuruya more likely than a finish.