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Muslim Salikhov vs Jake Matthews

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

Muslim Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov
Age 41 · Elo 1530
LLWLL
202 days since last fight
vs
Jake Matthews
Jake Matthews
Age 31 · Elo 1590
LWWWL
245 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Muslim SalikhovJake Matthews
GPT GPT: Muslim Salikhov 32% GPT: Jake Matthews 68% 32% 68% Elo Elo: Muslim Salikhov 41% Elo: Jake Matthews 59% 41% 59%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Muslim SalikhovJake Matthews
Strikes landed / min Muslim Salikhov Strikes landed / min: 3.37 3.37 Jake Matthews Strikes landed / min: 3.38 3.38 Strikes absorbed / min Muslim Salikhov Strikes absorbed / min: 2.96 2.96 Jake Matthews Strikes absorbed / min: 2.54 2.54 Striking accuracy Muslim Salikhov Striking accuracy: 49% 49% Jake Matthews Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Striking defense Muslim Salikhov Striking defense: 62% 62% Jake Matthews Striking defense: 61% 61% Takedowns / 15 min Muslim Salikhov Takedowns / 15 min: 1.07 1.07 Jake Matthews Takedowns / 15 min: 1.56 1.56 Takedown defense Muslim Salikhov Takedown defense: 72% 72% Jake Matthews Takedown defense: 64% 64% Sub attempts / 15 min Muslim Salikhov Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Jake Matthews Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 24% 24% GPT: Submission 18% 18% GPT: Decision 58% 58%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Jake Matthews by Decision, 68% confidence

Matthews is the younger, more durable athlete at this stage and has a more complete MMA game. His slightly higher output, better strike differential, and stronger offensive wrestling/submission threat give him more paths to win over three rounds. Salikhov remains dangerous with counter striking and timing, but his age, declining speed, and tendency to fight in low-volume pockets should allow Matthews to bank rounds with mixed striking and periodic takedowns, provided he avoids big counters.