Welterweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Muslim Salikhov
Age 41 · Elo 1530
LLWLL
202 days since last fight
vs
Jake Matthews
Age 31 · Elo 1590
LWWWL
245 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Muslim SalikhovJake Matthews
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Muslim SalikhovJake Matthews
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
GPT
Jake Matthews by Decision, 68% confidence
Matthews is the younger, more durable athlete at this stage and has a more complete MMA game. His slightly higher output, better strike differential, and stronger offensive wrestling/submission threat give him more paths to win over three rounds. Salikhov remains dangerous with counter striking and timing, but his age, declining speed, and tendency to fight in low-volume pockets should allow Matthews to bank rounds with mixed striking and periodic takedowns, provided he avoids big counters.