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Zhang Mingyang vs Alonzo Menifield

Light Heavyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

FINAL: Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO Punch
Zhang Mingyang
Zhang Mingyang
Age 27 · Elo 1516
LWWW
280 days since last fight
vs
Alonzo Menifield
Alonzo Menifield
Age 38 · Elo 1562
LWWLW
188 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Zhang MingyangAlonzo Menifield
GPT GPT: Zhang Mingyang 63% GPT: Alonzo Menifield 37% 63% 37% Elo Elo: Zhang Mingyang 43% Elo: Alonzo Menifield 57% 43% 57%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Zhang MingyangAlonzo Menifield
Strikes landed / min Zhang Mingyang Strikes landed / min: 9.23 9.23 Alonzo Menifield Strikes landed / min: 3.84 3.84 Strikes absorbed / min Zhang Mingyang Strikes absorbed / min: 6.39 6.39 Alonzo Menifield Strikes absorbed / min: 3.81 3.81 Striking accuracy Zhang Mingyang Striking accuracy: 57% 57% Alonzo Menifield Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Striking defense Zhang Mingyang Striking defense: 57% 57% Alonzo Menifield Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Zhang Mingyang Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Alonzo Menifield Takedowns / 15 min: 0.48 0.48 Takedown defense Zhang Mingyang Takedown defense: 0% 0% Alonzo Menifield Takedown defense: 78% 78% Sub attempts / 15 min Zhang Mingyang Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Alonzo Menifield Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 63% 63% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 32% 32%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO, 63% confidence

Zhang's early-round power, pace (9.23 SLpM at 57% accuracy), and pressure striking are likely to overwhelm Menifield's lower-volume, more measured approach. Menifield's best path is mixing in takedowns (0.63 per fight at 33% accuracy) and clinch control, but his tendency to slow and get hittable late plus Zhang's youth, durability, and offensive output tilt the matchup toward Zhang finding a knockout, particularly in the first half of the fight.